RNC Buying Time in Red States

by Jonathan Singer [courtesy of MyDD]

The Associated Press may believe that the map is shrinking, but the Republican National Committee apparently doesn't. Here's The New York Times today:

In one indication of how Mr. McCain defines the battleground and the message he will emphasize to counter the Democratic strategy, the Republican National Committee recently bought television time in 14 states for an advertisement calling Mr. Obama and Congressional Democrats "ready to tax, ready to spend, but not ready to lead."

That advertisement will be shown in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, New Mexico, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia (all Republican states in 2004 that Mr. Obama is contesting aggressively this time) and Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, (Democratic states four years ago that Mr. McCain is trying to win over).

[...]

For their part, Mr. McCain and Ms. Palin chose to remain in solid Republican territory. Thousands of enthusiastic supporters greeted them at an airport rally in Colorado Springs, where the crowd waved a sea of flags and chanted "Sarah Palin, Sarah Palin."

It's certainly the case that some red states like Florida, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada and Ohio have been among the swingiest of the swing states in the last couple presidential elections, but the same cannot be said of Colorado, North Carolina and Virginia -- all of which were relatively close while not closely contested -- or even Missouri, which has recently been contested early but not late in campaigns. The fact, then, that these states are in the mix of Republican ad buys -- as well as the fact that the Obama campaign is apparently considering buying time in states like Arizona and West Virginia even as it scales back in Georgia, and that Barack Obama himself campaigned in Montana and Missouri during the Democratic National Convention -- belies the notion that the map in 2008 looks just like the map from 2004 and 2000.

At present, we still have an expanded map that is cutting into traditionally red areas of the country. That may change, and I would not be surprised to see some of the redder states currently being contested being eased out of the rotation of both ad buys and candidate visits going forward. But for now, a significantly larger number of normally Republican states are seeing action than has been the case in the last couple of elections.

Update [2008-9-7 2:45:55 by Jonathan Singer]: Note the good omens out of Virginia...