New Indiana Poll: Hillary with narrow lead heading into April

by BlueIndiana [courtesy of MyDD]

There's a new poll out of Indiana this evening and it shows a tightening race in my state's presidential primary battle. Here are the results, along with the numbers from Tuesday's SurveyUSA poll:

Research 2000
400 Likely Voters -- MoE 5%
3/31-4/2

49% -- Hillary Clinton
46% -- Barack Obama
5% -- Undecided

SurveyUSA
530 Likely Voters -- MoE 4.3%
3/29-3/31

52% -- Hillary Clinton
43% -- Barack Obama
5% -- Other/Undecided

In the central portion of the state (outside of Indianapolis) and in southern Indiana, the demographics suggest that Clinton should have no problem tallying up some healthy margins. Similarly, the Obama campaign appears to be making a strong effort to run up the score in the Indianapolis metropolitan area, opening a second campaign headquarters in a city that arguably doesn't justify it by size alone. They want to win there, and win big.

The batleground -- at least at this point -- looks to be developing in the northern portion of the state. Conventional wisdom says that Obama should perform strongly in the northwestern region, which is in many ways an extension of Chicago, but the more east one travels, the more competitive the race will likely be.

A quick look at where Hillary Clinton and her chief surrogate have been reveals a lot about where they think there is the potential for votes -- a strong showing on the southern and northeastern portions of the state, and the losses in Indianapolis and the handful of large college towns could (theoretically, at least) be overcome.

Now, Obama still hasn't returned to the state since his one, brief visit to the suburbs of Indianapolis a few weeks ago. But he is running a statewide ad buy right now, which is something the Clinton campaign has yet to accomplish. The ad hits on jobs, which both candidates will need to address if they want to win the votes of countless Hoosiers who have lost their jobs over the last five years. Tonight's poll confirmed that, with 36% of Hoosiers putting economic recovery on the top of their agenda. Furthermore, he has already made promises to the press to at least visit South Bend and Fort Wayne, and he has canceled an event in the college town of Muncie to visit the Fort tomorrow.

The silence from Clinton supporters in this state about the 9-point margin in Tuesday's SurveyUSA poll -- and the thinly-veiled disappointment in response to tonight's results -- says a lot about their confidence heading into this home stretch. Still, I wouldn't underestimate the power of Clinton's supporters within the state, especially that of Sen. Evan Bayh, who in many ways bet the farm with his early endorsement. The question remains as to when Clinton will take to the airwaves, and as I wrote this I saw two Obama ads play in a matter of twenty minutes. Tonight's poll should make it clear that if they want to win Indiana, they are going to have to do more than they currently are.

We'll be following this race over at BlueIndiana.net, so feel free to drop by.