Expectations

by DemFromCT [courtesy of Daily Kos]

The third candidate debate, and second between Barack Obama and John McCain, takes place in just a short time.

What have we learned from the first two debates?

Well, we've learned that the partisan pundits call it for the candidate of their choice. The non-partisan pundits call it for whoever the aggressor is. The public so far calls it for the Democrats, and doesn't much care what the pundits say.

What's interesting is that the consensus that "McCain is behind" is leading to some consensus observations.

From Republicans:

1. "liberal" is a pejorative

2. all McCain has to do is explain how liberal Obama is and he wins

3. the word 'taxes' always wins

4. whatever wins, no matter how nasty, is okay because the alternative is losing

5. 'deserve to lose' is not an understandable phrase or in any Republican's vocabulary

They are actually depressed because vicious personal attacks are not likely to work and are not likely to be admired, but they are much more upset about the first than the second.

From Democrats:

The following make it difficult for McCain to sustain an effective attack against Obama's character

1. Mccain/Palin's low fav/unfav (example: R2K poll)

2. Sarah Palin's lack of gravitas (example: CBS poll).

3. town hall format

4. seriousness of economic crisis

5. Obama's counterpunch of erratic/wrong temperament means McCain cannot afford to look too angry

The media is increasingly aware of the vicious and hateful Palin rallies (see the Note) for crowd comments about 'terrorist', booing of the NY Times, and other knownothingisms from Palin Power. This is important because of what this Politico article summarizes:

Journalists by instinct tend to hedge their bets, so most don’t say in public what they really think. But our conversations with colleagues make clear what many think about the great race between Barack Obama and John McCain: This election is just about over, and Obama is just about to be president.

There’s a big difference, of course, between just about over and stick-a-fork-in-it over. A lot could happen, after all, in the 29 days before Nov. 4.

And that leads to something else that a lot of political reporters — and a lot of political operatives and elected officials from both major parties that we have spoken with — believe to be true but tend not to say when cameras are rolling.

By far the most likely thing that could derail Obama’s victory is a racial backlash that is not visible in today’s polls but is waiting to surge on Election Day — coaxed to the surface (to the extent coaxing is needed) with the help of coded appeals from McCain and his conservative allies.

The only way to stop this is to beat this. It will take an election victory to make it stop, and even then... But it's one of many reasons that John McCain, who touts his credentials in foreign policy - yet lost the foreign policy debate - needs to dominate tonight in a town hall setting he calls his own. If he doesn't, the public will give the win to the guy they want to vote for and not the guy they don't especially like.

Oh, and guess what? They know that.

Advisers worry about ‘grumpy McCain’

McCain Insiders Fretting That Polls' Downward Trends Tough to Reverse

Now you do, too.