The Democratic Wave Since 2004--Rasmussen Tracking
by Paul Rosenberg [courtesy of Open Left - Front Page]
First the Republicans began losing voters, then, only quite recently the Democrats began gaining them. Although the magnitude is less than that shown in a recent Pew Poll, the broad storyline is the same. Indeed, within the last month, the Rasmussen figures have suddenly jumped into the same range that Pew gave:
Table on the flip.
The movement since the primaries started is particularly striking--though the potential for it has been building for some time:
| Partisan ID Tracking, 2004-Date: Rasmussen | ||||||
| Republican | Democrat | Other | R - D | Quarterly | Dem/Rep | |
| 2004 | ||||||
| January | 34.60% | 36.90% | 28.50% | -2.30% | 1.07 | |
| February | 34.50% | 38.40% | 27.10% | -3.90% | 1.11 | |
| March | 34.30% | 38.30% | 27.40% | -4.00% | -3.40% | 1.12 |
| April | 34.20% | 37.00% | 28.80% | -2.80% | 1.08 | |
| May | 34.70% | 37.40% | 27.90% | -2.60% | 1.08 | |
| June | 35.30% | 37.30% | 27.50% | -2.00% | -2.50% | 1.06 |
| July | 35.50% | 38.40% | 26.10% | -3.00% | 1.08 | |
| August | 35.10% | 37.70% | 27.30% | -2.60% | 1.07 | |
| September | 37.30% | 37.90% | 24.80% | -0.60% | -2.10% | 1.02 |
| October | 37.20% | 38.70% | 24.10% | -1.50% | 1.04 | |
| November | 37.10% | 38.60% | 24.30% | -1.60% | 1.04 | |
| December | 37.10% | 38.80% | 24.10% | -1.70% | -1.60% | 1.05 |
| 2005 | ||||||
| January | 36.00% | 37.00% | 27.00% | -1.10% | 1.03 | |
| February | 36.20% | 36.90% | 26.80% | -0.70% | 1.02 | |
| March | 35.30% | 38.10% | 26.60% | -2.80% | -1.50% | 1.08 |
| April | 34.40% | 38.10% | 27.50% | -3.70% | 1.11 | |
| May | 35.10% | 37.00% | 27.90% | -2.00% | 1.05 | |
| June | 35.60% | 36.40% | 27.90% | -0.80% | -2.20% | 1.02 |
| July | 35.30% | 35.90% | 28.80% | -0.70% | 1.02 | |
| August | 34.90% | 36.30% | 28.70% | -1.40% | 1.04 | |
| September | 34.80% | 36.80% | 28.40% | -1.90% | -1.30% | 1.06 |
| October | 34.10% | 36.20% | 29.60% | -2.10% | 1.06 | |
| November | 34.10% | 37.90% | 28.00% | -3.90% | 1.11 | |
| December | 33.90% | 35.90% | 30.20% | -1.90% | -2.60% | 1.06 |
| 2006 | ||||||
| January | 34.50% | 36.10% | 29.50% | -1.60% | 1.05 | |
| February | 33.80% | 36.50% | 29.60% | -2.70% | 1.08 | |
| March | 34.00% | 36.70% | 29.30% | -2.70% | -2.40% | 1.08 |
| April | 32.70% | 36.40% | 30.90% | -3.70% | 1.11 | |
| May | 33.60% | 36.40% | 30.00% | -2.80% | 1.08 | |
| June | 33.50% | 37.00% | 29.50% | -3.40% | -3.30% | 1.1 |
| July | 32.80% | 36.80% | 30.40% | -3.90% | 1.12 | |
| August | 31.90% | 37.30% | 30.80% | -5.30% | 1.17 | |
| September | 32.30% | 37.00% | 30.70% | -4.80% | -4.70% | 1.15 |
| October | 31.50% | 37.70% | 30.70% | -6.20% | 1.2 | |
| November | 31.40% | 37.50% | 31.20% | -6.10% | 1.19 | |
| December | 31.10% | 38.00% | 30.80% | -6.90% | -6.40% | 1.22 |
| 2007 | ||||||
| January | 32.10% | 37.50% | 30.30% | -5.40% | 1.17 | |
| February | 31.70% | 37.80% | 30.50% | -6.10% | 1.19 | |
| March | 31.50% | 37.20% | 31.30% | -5.70% | -5.70% | 1.18 |
| April | 31.00% | 36.50% | 32.40% | -5.50% | 1.18 | |
| May | 30.80% | 36.30% | 32.90% | -5.50% | 1.18 | |
| June | 32.00% | 36.10% | 31.90% | -4.10% | -5.00% | 1.13 |
| July | 31.30% | 35.90% | 32.90% | -4.60% | 1.15 | |
| August | 32.50% | 37.40% | 30.10% | -4.90% | 1.15 | |
| September | 32.60% | 37.20% | 30.20% | -4.50% | -4.70% | 1.14 |
| October | 32.70% | 37.30% | 30.00% | -4.50% | 1.14 | |
| November | 32.50% | 37.40% | 30.20% | -4.90% | 1.15 | |
| December | 34.20% | 36.30% | 29.50% | -2.10% | -3.80% | 1.06 |
| 2008 | ||||||
| January | 33.10% | 38.70% | 28.20% | -5.60% | 1.17 | |
| February | 31.80% | 41.50% | 26.70% | -9.70% | 1.31 | |
| March | 32.10% | 41.10% | 26.80% | -9.10% | -8.10% | 1.28 |
| April | 31.40% | 41.40% | 27.20% | -10.00% | 1.32 | |
Posted May 11th, 2008 7:46 PM by Syndicated
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