Delegate Update, March 15th

by Chris Bowers [courtesy of Open Left - Front Page]

A Michigan plan for a full primary revote on June 3rd is nearing completion:

The four negotiators -- U.S. Sen. Carl Levin, National Committeewoman Debbie Dingell, Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick and UAW President Ron Gettelfinger -- put out a statement this afternoon that said: "At this time we are focusing on the possibility of a state-run primary in early June, which would not use any state funding. This option would require the passage of legislation by the State Legislature, and we look forward to working with the members of the Legislature in the coming days to see if this option can be made a reality."

In addition to the legislature, such plan would also, apparently, require $10,000,000 to be raised to hold the event, and for the Obama campaign to approve. I have no idea about the money, but I can't imagine a good reason why the Obama campaign would turn this proposal down. A revote in Michigan would poke a big hole in the "uncertainty strategy" the Clinton campaign is employing, and make Obama's path to the nomination much more obvious. Personally, I like the plan because it puts the Michigan nonsense behind us, and forces both candidates to organize around the country straight through June 3rd.

Meanwhile in Florida, Bill Nelson is floating a half-nelson plan:

With the Florida Democratic Party's proposed mail-in do-over of its Jan. 29 presidential primary drawing more heat than support, U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson began floating the idea Friday of seating half the state's 186 pledged delegates at the party's national convention.

Nelson said he spoke Friday with both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton on the Senate floor about the plight of Florida and Michigan, the two states stripped of delegates because their early primaries violated national rules.

"Both of them said, `You have to seat Florida and Michigan.' Now, of course, the devil is in the details,'" Nelson said.

The Nelson plan still gives Clinton the edge, based on her 17 percentage-point win in January. But instead of gaining 38 delegates, Clinton's victory margin in Florida would be reduced to 19.

While I am not thrilled with Florida only receiving half-votes, I would be fine with this compromise. It allows the Edwards delegates to still attend the convention, and probably projects the delegate advantage Clinton would have had in the state if both candidates had campaigning vigorously there. I hope it is accepted, and we can just move forward with our lives.

If both deals were accepted, the delegate projection chart would look like this:

Democratic Nomination Campaign Delegate Projection

50% + 1 would be 2,155, leaving Obama 464 delegates, or 46.2% of the remaining delegates, shy of clinching. The nomination would probably be narrowly sealed either on June 3rd, or at some point later in the month once enough superdelegates endorse. Clinton would need 53.8% of the remaining delegates in order to force a brokered convention with the Edwards delegates, and 56.7% in order to win outright.

Also, the Iowa county conventions are today. There is a good chance that some of the 14 Edwards delegates will switch to either Obama or Clinton.