Daily Kos Election Prediction Contest finalists

by kos [courtesy of Daily Kos]

I was convinced yesterday to run numbers for finalists depending on the most likely outcomes. These aren't the only possible outcomes, since crazy stuff might happen in OH-15 or VA-05 to deprive us of expected victories in those two districts, but assuming that the only real question marks left are MN-Sen and CA-04, here are the finalists:

Scenario 1: 57-40 Senate, 257-176 House

With a score of just 5 (the lower the number, the better), the finalists would be:

Scenario 2: 56-41 Senate, 257-176 House

With a score of 10, the finalists would be:

Scenario 3: 57-40 Senate, 258-175 House

With a score of 10, the finalists would be:

Scenario 4: 56-41 Senate, 258-175 House

With a score of 10, the finalists would be:

You can get more information, including the formula for determining the finalists, here.

So once we have the final congressional tally, we'll know the finalists. And at that point, it'll come down to the popular vote tie-breaker. And remember, the popular vote numbers are still being adjusted as new votes get added to the tally.

This contest ain't over just yet, but we're getting close to crowning our best guesser wisest political prognosticator.

Once all numbers are in, we'll publish everyone's results, ranked in order, so that we can see how we all did compared to each other. And the thousands who did better than me will be able to lord it over me for the next two years -- until the 2010 contest wipes the slate clean and we can play all over again.

Update: There was an error in the script, these results are being re-tabulated. There's hope for some of you still!