swing state project

Ties That Bind

by Annette Taddeo [courtesy of MyDD]

I had the pleasure of meeting Annette in Austin and wanted to alert everyone to this race and to this excellent candidate we have running against Bush rubber stamp Ileana Ros-Lehtinen in FL-18 - Todd

Cross-Posted at Daily Kos, Open Left, and Swing State Project

This weekend, we saw once more that no matter what happens in Iraq, there is no end in sight to this war unless we demand it.

For the people of Congressional District 18 in South Florida, getting out of the war in Iraq is a top priority.

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www.voteTaddeo.com

For years, George Bush and his cronies - like my opponent, Republican Ileana Ros-Lehtinen - said that American troops would redeploy from Iraq when the Iraqi people asked us to.  Last Saturday, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki asked us to leave.

The out-of-touch Washington Republicans responded strangely, with George Bush speaking of "time horizons." John McCain flip-flopped on his original position, and said that he knew better than Iraq's democratically elected prime minister what the Iraqi people really wanted.

Bush-Republican Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, my opponent, says nothing. Her silence is deafening.  For years, she has rubber-stamped President Bush's failed Iraq war strategy unquestioningly.  Now she stays quiet, and doesn't even mention Iraq on her website.

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DCCC Expands List of Reserved Ad Buys

by Todd Beeton [courtesy of MyDD]

A couple weeks ago, the DCCC revealed the 31 races they're targeting with $35 million worth of ad buys this fall (so far the time is just reserved, not bought.) The list consisted of 11 Democratic incumbents and one Dem open seat where the committee would be going on defense; the rest are seats currently held by the GOP.

We really have an embarrassment of riches this year, especially considering how many seats we took last cycle, but thanks to a plethora of GOP retirements and a favorable political environment for Democrats, whereas the DCCC's 2007 goal was to put 35-40 GOP seats in play, the 2008 reality is that there are actually 62 seats the DCCC considers competitive. So, it is not surprising to see the list of races where the DCCC is reserving ad time expand by 20 seats for a total of $53 million in 51 districts.

From Swing State Project:

AL-02 (Open): $598K
AL-05 (Open): $678K
AZ-08 (Giffords - D): $705K
CA-04 (Open) & CA-11 (McNerney - D): $2.03M
FL-18 (Ros-Lehtinen - R), FL-21 (L. Diaz-Balart - R) and FL-25 (M. Diaz Balart - R): $1.4M
ID-01 (Sali - R): $349K
IL-10 (Kirk - R): $1.4M
IL-11 (Weller - R): $1.6M
IL-14 (Foster - D): $1.02M
LA-04 (Open): $714K
MO-06 (Graves - R): $798K
MS-01 (Childers - D): $1.06M
NJ-03 (Open): $1.7M
NY-25 (Open), NY-26 (Open), NY-29 (Kuhl - R): $2.7M
WA-08 (Reichert - R): $949,000

Chris Cilizza breaks it down:

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Midday afternoon thread

by kos [courtesy of Daily Kos]

  • "Time Horizons" is seriously the funniest shit to come out of Republican mouths in ... well, at least the last few days.
  • Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha! What do they say about the definition of the word "insanity"? Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting the results to be different?
  • Republicans asks the net for advice, guess who responded? The Paulites, of course.
  • The real price of gas.

    Rising fuel prices are causing financial strain for some home health care workers and the industry is considering replacing some services in rural areas with remote monitoring systems, the AP/Chicago Tribune reports. Gasoline prices have increased by more than 80% in the past 18 months, and experts say it is "a particularly knotty problem for nurses, aides and other employees of home health care agencies -- many of whom are responsible for their own travel expenses and depend on government reimbursements that haven't yet caught up with the rising prices at the pump," the AP/Tribune reports. A survey by the National Association of Area Agencies on Aging found that 50% of home care employees said they have already cut back on home visits because of fuel costs and 90% expect to make cuts in 2009.

    -- demfromct

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The GOP--Party of the South

by Paul Rosenberg [courtesy of Open Left - Front Page]

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Three Better Democrats

by Mimikatz [courtesy of Open Left - Front Page]

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Midday Open Thread

by BarbinMD [courtesy of Daily Kos]

  • James at Swing State Project looks at the second quarter fundraising reports from various congressional candidates.
  • Kit Bond (R-MO) joins the long line of Republicans who are lying about oil spills during Hurricane Katrina.
  • Thank you:

    Can I just note that I seem to live in some kind of mirror universe where the fact that Barack Obama has, for months, maintained a modest lead over John McCain in every public poll constitutes bad news for Obama and that the specific reason it constitutes bad news for Obama is that the larger political climate is favorable to Obama.

  • John McCain decided it was time to address the NAACP. Apparently the applause was polite.
  • George Bush is negotiating with "radicals and terrorists." John Cole sees three possible reactions to this story:

    Option #1 is a pure freak out by the wingnut crowd (if I had to bet money, either someone from Malkin’s enterprise or Commentary will lead the charge), who claim it is more evidence Bush is not a true conservative, all the while claiming McCain would never do something like this. Option #2 is to deny they are actually, you know, negotiating, and Burns is just along for the ride. Option #3 is the tried and true "BUT THE DEMOCRATS ARE WORSE." And the final option is to simply pretend this didn’t happen.

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DCCC's Targeted Races

by Todd Beeton [courtesy of MyDD]

Swing State Project has the full list of seats being targeted by the DCCC in $35 million worth of ads this fall.

AK-AL (Young): $586K
AZ-01 (OPEN): $1.7M
AZ-05 (Mitchell - D): $1.7M
CO-04 (Musgrave - R): $667K
CT-04 (Shays - R): $697K
FL-16 (Mahoney - D): $1.5M
FL-24 (Feeney - R): $1M
IN-09 (Hill - D): $1.6M
KS-02 (Boyda - D): $1.2M
KY-03 (Yarmuth - D): $659K
LA-06 (Cazayoux - D): $723K
MI-07 (Walberg - R): $1.5M
MI-09 (Knollenberg - R): $1.1M
MN-03 (OPEN): $1.4M
MO-09 (OPEN): $941K
NC-08 (Hayes - R): $1.6M
NH-01 (Shea-Porter - D) $564K
NJ-07 (OPEN): $1.8M
NM-01 (OPEN): $1.3M
NM-02 (OPEN): $1.2M
NV-03 (Porter - R): $916K
NY-13 (OPEN): $1.3M
OH-01 (Chabot): $928K
OH-15 (OPEN): $1.2M
OH-16 (OPEN): $1.3M
OR-05 (OPEN): $1.2M
PA-04 (Altmire - D): $554K
TX-22 (Lampson - D): $1.1M
TX-23 (Rodriguez - D): $707K
VA-11 (OPEN): $1.3M
WI-08 (Kagen - D): $475K

Real Clear Politics breaks it down:

In total, the DCCC has reserved $12 million to protect their own incumbents and Hooley's open seat. The nine Republican incumbents will be targeted with up to $9 million in total spending, while the DCCC has reserved another $13.5 million for Republican-held open seats.

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DCCC reserves ad time in 31 districts

by brownsox [courtesy of Daily Kos]

Via the Associated Press, the DCCC has reserved $35 million worth of ad time in 31 districts nationwide.

The list of districts (minus two) is below. Most of these races are top-tier, so there are few surprises here. There's certain to be more action, in several other districts, as the campaign rolls on. So if your favorite race is not on this list, don't cry, and don't sweat; it doesn't mean the national party is ignoring it.

In fact, there are no guarantees that all these districts will actually see DCCC ad buys. The DCCC is reserving September and October air time in advance, so as to get discounts on ad time. They may not end up using it.

So without further ado, here is the list, compiled by Swing State Project:

Republican-Held Seats
AK-AL Young
AZ-01 Renzi (open)
CO-04 Musgrave
CT-04 Shays
FL-24 Feeney
MI-07 Walberg
MI-09 Knollenberg
MN-03 Ramstad (open)
MO-09 Hulshof (open)
NC-08 Hayes
NM-01 Wilson (open)
NM-02 Pearce (open)
NV-03 Porter
OH-01 Chabot
OH-15 Pryce (open)
OH-16 Regula (open)
VA-11 Davis (open)

Democratic-Held Seats
AZ-05 Mitchell
FL-16 Mahoney
IN-09 Hill
KS-02 Boyda
KY-03 Yarmuth
LA-06 Cazayoux
NH-01 Shea-Porter
OR-05 Hooley (open)
PA-04 Altmire
TX-22 Lampson
TX-23 Rodriguez
WI-08 Kagen

Per the Associated Press, open-seat races in New Jersey and New York are also targeted.

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American Blogger: Introducing PIE! Scores

by Populista [courtesy of Open Left - Front Page]

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