Center-Left Nation: Congress Since WWII
by Paul Rosenberg [courtesy of Open Left - Front Page]
I made an error in a diary last Sunday, "Center Right Nation? Survey Says: Not So Much". I got the total House and Senate popular vote percentages switched. The House GOP total did go over 50% that year. So I wanted to set the record straight with overviews of both chambers. First, since I didn't do this before, here's the Senate:
 | |
| There were 34 elections during this time. | |
# of Elections won popular vote:
| # of Elections over 50%:
|
# of Consecutive elections won popular vote:
| # of Consecutive Elections over 50%:
|
If these were sports teams, would there be any doubt which one was the dominant power?
Any doubt?
Then how about this:
# of Elections won popular vote by 10%+:
- Dems: 11
- Reps: 0
And, since the Senate only turns over 1/3 of the seats each election, it makes sense to look at rolling 3-cycle averages, as well:
 | |
| There were 32 3-election cycles during this time. | |
# of Cycles won popular vote:
| # of Cycles over 50%:
|
# of consecutive cycles won popular vote:
| # of consecutive Cycles over 50%:
|
# of Cycles won popular vote by 5%+:
| |
And, finally, here's the corrected House chart:
 | |
| There were 34 elections during this time. | |
# of Elections won popular vote:
| # of Elections over 50%:
|
# of Consecutive elections won popular vote:
| # of Consecutive Elections over 50%:
|
# of elections won popular vote by 10%+:
| # of elections won popular vote by 5%+:
|
Summary
In light of all the above, the only possible sense in which one can say that "America is a center-right nation" is (A) to ignore the legislative branch entirely, or (B) to only look at the period 1994-2004 in the House. During this same period of time, the Senate was, at best, evenly balanced. And the last two cycles clearly indicate that both chambers are returning to the customary pattern of Democratic dominance, with demographic pattern spreading across the country that strongly indicate decades more of the same.
Tables
| House Popular Vote | ||
| Year | Dems | Reps |
| 1942 | 46.1% | 50.6% |
| 1944 | 50.6% | 47.2% |
| 1946 | 44.3% | 53.5% |
| 1948 | 51.2% | 45.4% |
| 1950 | 48.9% | 48.9% |
| 1952 | 49.2% | 49.3% |
| 1954 | 52.1% | 47.0% |
| 1956 | 50.7% | 48.7% |
| 1958 | 55.5% | 43.6% |
| 1960 | 54.3% | 44.8% |
| 1962 | 52.1% | 47.1% |
| 1964 | 56.9% | 42.4% |
| 1966 | 50.5% | 48.0% |
| 1968 | 50.0% | 48.2% |
| 1970 | 53.0% | 44.5% |
| 1972 | 51.7% | 46.4% |
| 1974 | 57.1% | 40.5% |
| 1976 | 55.5% | 44.7% |
| 1978 | 53.4% | 44.7% |
| 1980 | 50.3% | 47.6% |
| 1982 | 54.1% | 43.4% |
| 1984 | 51.9% | 46.8% |
| 1986 | 50.1% | 47.6% |
| 1988 | 53.2% | 45.3% |
| 1990 | 52.0% | 43.9% |
| 1992 | 49.9% | 44.8% |
| 1994 | 44.7% | 51.5% |
| 1996 | 48.1% | 47.8% |
| 1998 | 47.1% | 48.0% |
| 2000 | 47.0% | 47.3% |
| 2002 | 45.0% | 49.6% |
| 2004 | 46.6% | 49.2% |
| 2006 | 52.0% | 44.1% |
| 2008 | 53.0% | 44.2% |
| Senate Popular Vote | ||
| Year | Dems | Reps |
| 1942 | 46.7% | 49.2% |
| 1944 | 50.3% | 46.1% |
| 1946 | 54.5% | 41.4% |
| 1948 | 56.2% | 42.6% |
| 1950 | 47.2% | 49.9% |
| 1952 | 51.9% | 44.7% |
| 1954 | 55.5% | 43.0% |
| 1956 | 50.6% | 48.5% |
| 1958 | 55.0% | 43.2% |
| 1960 | 55.1% | 44.2% |
| 1962 | 50.4% | 49.0% |
| 1964 | 56.3% | 42.2% |
| 1966 | 47.9% | 51.0% |
| 1968 | 49.3% | 46.5% |
| 1970 | 52.4% | 39.9% |
| 1972 | 45.5% | 52.4% |
| 1974 | 55.2% | 44.5% |
| 1976 | 53.7% | 41.5% |
| 1978 | 50.6% | 47.6% |
| 1980 | 50.3% | 47.6% |
| 1982 | 54.1% | 43.4% |
| 1984 | 49.8% | 49.3% |
| 1986 | 50.1% | 47.6% |
| 1988 | 52.1% | 46.2% |
| 1990 | 51.1% | 47.1% |
| 1992 | 49.2% | 44.4% |
| 1994 | 44.0% | 49.9% |
| 1996 | 49.4% | 47.9% |
| 1998 | 49.5% | 46.8% |
| 2000 | 48.4% | 47.7% |
| 2002 | 45.5% | 49.5% |
| 2004 | 50.8% | 45.3% |
| 2006 | 53.2% | 41.8% |
| 2008 | 51.3% | 45.4% |
| Senate Popular Vote Rolling 3-Cycle Avg. (Unwieghted) | ||
| Year | Dems | Reps |
| 1942 | -- | -- |
| 1944 | -- | -- |
| 1946 | 50.5% | 45.5% |
| 1948 | 53.7% | 43.4% |
| 1950 | 52.6% | 44.6% |
| 1952 | 51.8% | 45.7% |
| 1954 | 51.5% | 45.9% |
| 1956 | 52.7% | 45.4% |
| 1958 | 53.7% | 44.9% |
| 1960 | 53.6% | 45.3% |
| 1962 | 53.5% | 45.5% |
| 1964 | 53.9% | 45.1% |
| 1966 | 51.5% | 47.4% |
| 1968 | 51.1% | 46.6% |
| 1970 | 49.9% | 45.8% |
| 1972 | 49.1% | 46.3% |
| 1974 | 51.0% | 45.6% |
| 1976 | 51.5% | 46.1% |
| 1978 | 53.2% | 44.5% |
| 1980 | 51.5% | 45.6% |
| 1982 | 51.7% | 46.2% |
| 1984 | 51.4% | 46.8% |
| 1986 | 51.3% | 46.8% |
| 1988 | 50.7% | 47.7% |
| 1990 | 51.1% | 47.0% |
| 1992 | 50.8% | 45.9% |
| 1994 | 48.1% | 47.1% |
| 1996 | 47.5% | 47.4% |
| 1998 | 47.6% | 48.2% |
| 2000 | 49.1% | 47.5% |
| 2002 | 47.8% | 48.0% |
| 2004 | 48.2% | 47.5% |
| 2006 | 49.8% | 45.5% |
| 2008 | 51.8% | 44.2% |
Posted November 22nd, 2008 10:15 PM by Syndicated
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